Demand Estimation

You can find the latest values on the top right of the Demand Estimation webpage.

Along with the underlying demand models used to create the profiles, you can also find the Derived Factors in the UK Link secure area.

• The Derived Factors are located in folder 18: ‘NDM Profiling and Capacity Estimation Algorithms’ – you just need to select the relevant gas year
• The demand models are located in folder 3: ‘Demand Estimation Parameters’

CWVs are published daily on National Gas Transmission's data portal.

The SNCWVs are available in the UK Link secure area. Go to folder 3: ‘Demand Estimation Parameters’, then access the sub-folder: ‘b. Demand Model Supporting Files’.

The Demand Estimation Sub-Committee (DESC) is responsible for producing the Derived Factors used in Demand Estimation. The DESC responsibilities are defined in Section H of the Uniform Network Code (UNC).

The core of the analysis work required to calculate the Derived Factors is performed by the Demand Estimation Team at Correla (on behalf of Xoserve).

DESC is responsible for providing approval at key stages. This includes the final approval which allows CDSP to update the relevant systems with the new Derived Factors for the upcoming Gas Year.

For more information please read An introduction to the Demand Estimation Sub-Committee hosted by the Joint Office of Gas Transporters.

Each year the Demand Estimation Team publishes the ‘NDM Algorithms Booklet’. This booklet provides detailed information about the decisions made in developing the Non-Daily Metered (NDM) algorithms for each gas year.

The end-to-end demand modelling process is presented as ‘Sections’ in the booklet and include:

• Data Aggregations: The disposition of the NDM sample sites used in the regression analyses
  
  
• Modelling Results: A summary of the results for the single year modelling runs
  
  
• Algorithm Performance: A review of performance for the NDM algorithm applicable for the last full gas year.

The NDM Algorithms Booklet is available via UK Link secure documents.*

(Folder 18. NDM Profiling and Capacity Estimation Algorithms/choose Gas Year/folder 4. NDM Algorithms Booklet)

*Access to secure links are only available to gas shippers and transporters. To gain access find out about accessing secure documents.

The anonymised sample Daily Gas Consumption Data can be accessed via UK Link secure documents.*

(Folder 18. NDM Profiling and Capacity Estimation Algorithms/choose Gas Year/folder 2. Demand Estimation Sample Data)

The folder contains a ‘README’ document which provides guidance on the structure and contents of the files.

*Access to secure links are only available to gas shippers and transporters. To gain access find out about accessing secure documents.

Information relating to the Demand Estimation modelling processes and industry related data is published in a secure area on Xoserve.com and is provided to support DSC parties in replicating and understanding NDM demand estimation parameters.

This is located in Folder 18. NDM Capacity and Estimation Algorithms.

It is provided in a secure area because:

1. it is the parties of the DSC (e.g. Shippers and Distribution Networks) who provide the funding for the various Demand Estimation related activities performed by the Central Data Service Provider (CDSP), such as the management of the Non-Daily Metered (NDM) sample and demand modelling analysis.
2. aspects of the Demand Modelling include use of third party provided data which include obligations that downstream derived data or calculations can only be used for Demand Estimation purposes and shared with DSC parties.

In the event a DSC party engages with a non-DSC party and wishes to share the data in the secure area it is important that it is understood that the sharing of data is only used to support Demand Estimation related processes and is shared in accordance with obligations of the DSC.